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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Barron Trump

24h volume
775
68.4k lifetime
Open interest
41.3k
+698 over 24h
Spread
14¢
4 × 2.94 at the touch
24h range
44¢ – 55¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
55%+1

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
45%

costs 54¢

YES bid / ask
46¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 54¢
24h low 44¢24h high 55¢
Recent buying33% YES · 67% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢volSep 20, 4:21 AMSep 21, 4:10 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2278¢
  • ask4475¢
  • ask2272¢
  • ask3070¢
  • ask2267¢
  • ask6.8566¢
  • ask165¢
  • ask2.9460¢
spread14¢mid 53¢
  • bid446¢
  • bid545¢
  • bid7743¢
  • bid3.7541¢
  • bid1733¢
  • bid7030¢
  • bid6429¢
  • bid10028¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Barron Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 33% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago55¢2.06bought yes
6h ago55¢1.46bought yes
12h ago45¢0.01bought no
12h ago44¢1.85bought no
12h ago48¢5bought no
12h ago48¢5bought no
12h ago49¢4bought no
12h ago55¢16bought yes
13h ago55¢4.68bought yes
13h ago51¢4bought yes
13h ago50¢5bought yes
13h ago51¢5bought yes
23h ago45¢158bought no
23h ago50¢5bought no
23h ago50¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.