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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Bob Menendez

24h volume
0
4,374 lifetime
Open interest
1,682
+0 over 24h
Spread
21¢
5 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
26%

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
74%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 97¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 20, 7:07 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10488¢
  • ask7287¢
  • ask4686¢
  • ask5374¢
  • ask3564¢
  • ask1027¢
  • ask725¢
  • ask1024¢
spread21¢mid 14¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid3362¢
  • bid1,0002¢
  • bid3001¢
  • bid490¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Bob Menendez has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BMEN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago26¢1bought yes
1mo ago22¢5bought yes
2mo ago16¢80bought no
2mo ago17¢80bought no
2mo ago21¢150bought no
2mo ago23¢500bought no
2mo ago24¢5bought no
2mo ago26¢250bought no
2mo ago29¢250bought no
2mo ago29¢250bought no
2mo ago30¢250bought no
2mo ago30¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.