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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Elizabeth Holmes

24h volume
0
1,165 lifetime
Open interest
618
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
15 × 17 at the touch
24h range
–
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 65¢

YES bid / ask
35¢ / 39¢
NO bid / ask
61¢ / 65¢
Recent buying9% YES · 91% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volSep 20, 1:30 PMSep 21, 4:28 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask21062¢
  • ask7461¢
  • ask160¢
  • ask155¢
  • ask2043¢
  • ask3141¢
  • ask10040¢
  • ask1739¢
spread4¢mid 37¢
  • bid1535¢
  • bid1.4725¢
  • bid1581¢
  • bid331¢
  • bid2001¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elizabeth Holmes has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 23 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EHOL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 9% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago38¢5bought yes
1d ago38¢2.6bought yes
18d ago40¢0.59bought yes
22d ago35¢15bought no
22d ago36¢5bought no
23d ago34¢17bought no
28d ago34¢2.34bought no
1mo ago41¢1.17bought yes
1mo ago34¢1.47bought no
2mo ago37¢15bought no
2mo ago37¢9bought no
2mo ago37¢6bought no
2mo ago36¢15bought no
2mo ago36¢7.6bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.