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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Edward Snowden

24h volume
0
16.5k lifetime
Open interest
6,984
+0 over 7d
Spread
17¢
1 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
39 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 90¢
Recent buying1% YES · 99% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5450¢
  • ask3849¢
  • ask10035¢
  • ask10031¢
  • ask10030¢
  • ask0.129¢
  • ask528¢
  • ask127¢
spread17¢mid 19¢
  • bid110¢
  • bid59¢
  • bid1308¢
  • bid874¢
  • bid2383¢
  • bid3161¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Edward Snowden has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-ESNO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 39 trades, 1% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago8¢20bought no
1d ago20¢100bought no
9d ago28¢250bought no
11d ago29¢0.9bought yes
11d ago29¢0.69bought yes
15d ago24¢1.45bought no
15d ago27¢92bought no
15d ago20¢161bought no
15d ago27¢1bought no
18d ago27¢0.33bought no
18d ago27¢6.72bought no
19d ago28¢1bought no
20d ago28¢0.35bought no
20d ago28¢0.34bought no
21d ago26¢13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.