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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Eric Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Eric Trump

24h volume
31
7,520 lifetime
Open interest
5,635
Spread
15¢
1 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
46%−29

A YES contract costs 69¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
54%

costs 46¢

YES bid / ask
54¢ / 69¢
NO bid / ask
31¢ / 46¢
Recent buying22% YES · 78% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask33389¢
  • ask4488¢
  • ask21387¢
  • ask7375¢
  • ask6.9774¢
  • ask373¢
  • ask171¢
  • ask169¢
spread15¢mid 62¢
  • bid7354¢
  • bid1653¢
  • bid3.0346¢
  • bid50045¢
  • bid1.8941¢
  • bid1,36325¢
  • bid3,4303¢
  • bid3,4502¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Eric Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 8 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-ETRU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 22% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago59¢2bought no
5h ago58¢5bought no
5h ago57¢5bought no
5h ago46¢6.97bought no
5h ago60¢1bought no
5h ago59¢1bought no
5h ago49¢10bought no
24h ago74¢0.5bought yes
1d ago75¢50bought yes
1d ago69¢17bought yes
2d ago57¢164bought yes
2d ago55¢5bought yes
2d ago55¢1.89bought yes
8d ago48¢9.47bought no
11d ago49¢1.89bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.