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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Ghislaine Maxwell

24h volume
14
33.0k lifetime
Open interest
10.5k
−520 over 7d
Spread
1¢
567 × 98 at the touch
24h range
31¢ – 32¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
32%+1

A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
68%

costs 69¢

YES bid / ask
31¢ / 32¢
NO bid / ask
68¢ / 69¢
24h low 31¢24h high 32¢
Recent buying21% YES · 79% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,06570¢
  • ask91568¢
  • ask55067¢
  • ask5864¢
  • ask3163¢
  • ask7262¢
  • ask455¢
  • ask9832¢
spread1¢mid 31¢
  • bid56731¢
  • bid2923¢
  • bid31122¢
  • bid55620¢
  • bid3116¢
  • bid1,00515¢
  • bid50010¢
  • bid2,3286¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ghislaine Maxwell has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-GMAX
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 21% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago32¢5bought yes
14h ago32¢2.09bought yes
14h ago31¢7.09bought no
1d ago31¢7.09bought no
1d ago31¢142bought no
2d ago31¢43bought no
5d ago32¢5bought yes
5d ago31¢15bought yes
5d ago31¢5bought yes
5d ago27¢3.75bought no
7d ago29¢459bought no
8d ago29¢25bought no
8d ago31¢15bought yes
8d ago31¢0.38bought yes
11d ago29¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.