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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Hunter Biden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Hunter Biden

24h volume
0
2,264 lifetime
Open interest
1,529
Spread
4¢
916 × 30 at the touch
24h range
–
9 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 99¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,21854¢
  • ask2245¢
  • ask77944¢
  • ask5637¢
  • ask115¢
  • ask227¢
  • ask445¢
  • ask305¢
spread4¢mid 3¢
  • bid9162¢
  • bid511¢
  • bid1,3001¢
  • bid440¢
  • bid220¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Hunter Biden has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-HBID
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 9 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14d ago5¢14bought yes
28d ago2¢11bought no
28d ago2¢198bought no
28d ago1¢22bought no
28d ago2¢22bought no
28d ago1¢254bought no
1mo ago2¢1bought no
1mo ago8¢12bought yes
2mo ago6¢165bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.