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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Jared Kushner

24h volume
20
6,847 lifetime
Open interest
4,894
+188 over 7d
Spread
22¢
5 × 2 at the touch
24h range
45¢ – 54¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%−5

A YES contract costs 68¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 54¢

YES bid / ask
46¢ / 68¢
NO bid / ask
32¢ / 54¢
24h low 45¢24h high 54¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15383¢
  • ask10082¢
  • ask15381¢
  • ask1475¢
  • ask4172¢
  • ask1371¢
  • ask268¢
  • ask567¢
spread21¢mid 56¢
  • bid546¢
  • bid8545¢
  • bid5044¢
  • bid5043¢
  • bid5042¢
  • bid1.735¢
  • bid7021¢
  • bid10020¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jared Kushner has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JKUS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago52¢5bought no
3h ago53¢1bought no
3h ago54¢0.82bought no
3h ago45¢13bought no
2d ago49¢100bought yes
2d ago49¢5bought yes
2d ago49¢4.85bought yes
2d ago50¢86bought yes
5d ago48¢0.1bought yes
8d ago43¢4.85bought no
8d ago44¢5bought no
8d ago49¢99bought yes
11d ago43¢1.7bought no
17d ago48¢1.5bought yes
17d ago49¢0.49bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.