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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means JD Vance

24h volume
0
4,612 lifetime
Open interest
3,773
+0.11 over 7d
Spread
18¢
6 × 119 at the touch
24h range
40¢ – 40¢
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%

A YES contract costs 40¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 78¢

YES bid / ask
22¢ / 40¢
NO bid / ask
60¢ / 78¢
24h low 40¢24h high 40¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3567¢
  • ask6463¢
  • ask4860¢
  • ask14459¢
  • ask850¢
  • ask6042¢
  • ask1341¢
  • ask11940¢
spread18¢mid 31¢
  • bid622¢
  • bid5.6819¢
  • bid1011¢
  • bid50910¢
  • bid183¢
  • bid1,6682¢
  • bid3151¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If JD Vance has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 11 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JVAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago40¢0.11bought yes
12d ago38¢2.35bought no
14d ago40¢2.35bought yes
17d ago41¢2.34bought yes
18d ago41¢0.3bought yes
18d ago41¢9bought yes
27d ago41¢1bought yes
27d ago40¢1bought yes
1mo ago36¢11bought no
1mo ago25¢173bought no
1mo ago34¢10bought no
1mo ago41¢10bought no
1mo ago37¢5bought no
1mo ago41¢500bought no
1mo ago21¢32bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.