Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Keonne Rodriguez

24h volume
0
2,224 lifetime
Open interest
652
+0 over 24h
Spread
34¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
5 recent trades
Chance of YES
43%

A YES contract costs 43¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
57%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
/ 43¢
NO bid / ask
57¢ / 91¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 20, 4:17 AMSep 21, 4:05 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12888¢
  • ask13887¢
  • ask5075¢
  • ask3855¢
  • ask148¢
  • ask4.0545¢
  • ask144¢
  • ask543¢
spread34¢mid 26¢
  • bid5
  • bid1
  • bid5
  • bid34
  • bid49
  • bid1,000
  • bid10
  • bid21.4k
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Keonne Rodriguez has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 15, 2025 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-KROD
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 5 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago43¢0.19bought no
20d ago44¢0.43bought no
1mo ago44¢1.73bought no
1mo ago44¢1.89bought no
1mo ago51¢1.89bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.