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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Pam Bondi receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Pam Bondi

24h volume
0
2,591 lifetime
Open interest
1,811
−134 over 7d
Spread
23¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 92¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,59880¢
  • ask1,21079¢
  • ask50266¢
  • ask35165¢
  • ask4959¢
  • ask10038¢
  • ask533¢
  • ask531¢
spread23¢mid 20¢
  • bid58¢
  • bid506¢
  • bid1752¢
  • bid2501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pam Bondi has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 11 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-PBON
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago31¢134bought no
4d ago32¢5bought no
4d ago32¢5bought no
17d ago38¢2bought yes
17d ago38¢1.22bought yes
17d ago37¢1.24bought yes
17d ago37¢0.62bought yes
20d ago37¢5.17bought yes
27d ago32¢5bought no
27d ago31¢10bought no
1mo ago32¢1.41bought no
2mo ago37¢0.73bought yes
2mo ago34¢7.39bought no
2mo ago34¢51bought no
2mo ago37¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.