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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Pete Hegseth receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Pete Hegseth

24h volume
68
3,767 lifetime
Open interest
1,727
+67 over 24h
Spread
16¢
10 × 1.7 at the touch
24h range
47¢ – 59¢
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
59%+17

A YES contract costs 59¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
41%

costs 57¢

YES bid / ask
43¢ / 59¢
NO bid / ask
41¢ / 57¢
24h low 47¢24h high 59¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢volSep 20, 1:29 PMSep 21, 4:20 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,37787¢
  • ask5686¢
  • ask36083¢
  • ask25282¢
  • ask8.275¢
  • ask274¢
  • ask1.760¢
  • ask1.759¢
spread16¢mid 51¢
  • bid1043¢
  • bid1541¢
  • bid2040¢
  • bid2336¢
  • bid1.6734¢
  • bid5016¢
  • bid11715¢
  • bid213¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pete Hegseth has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 11 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-PHEG
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago59¢1.64bought yes
8h ago48¢2.01bought yes
10h ago48¢20bought yes
10h ago48¢4.02bought yes
14h ago48¢35bought yes
14h ago47¢0.72bought yes
14h ago47¢5bought yes
3d ago42¢1.7bought no
5d ago47¢0.2bought yes
5d ago47¢4.08bought yes
7d ago46¢2bought yes
7d ago41¢9.85bought no
11d ago42¢1.67bought no
14d ago43¢3.51bought no
14d ago43¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.