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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Scott Bessent receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Scott Bessent

24h volume
0
4,608 lifetime
Open interest
2,507
Spread
16¢
10 × 22 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
49%

A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
51%

costs 66¢

YES bid / ask
34¢ / 50¢
NO bid / ask
50¢ / 66¢
Recent buying28% YES · 72% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask76880¢
  • ask50179¢
  • ask46378¢
  • ask4975¢
  • ask23174¢
  • ask571¢
  • ask2351¢
  • ask2250¢
spread16¢mid 42¢
  • bid1034¢
  • bid1.6733¢
  • bid1026¢
  • bid93025¢
  • bid3112¢
  • bid50111¢
  • bid1,6687¢
  • bid2501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Scott Bessent has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 11 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SBES
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 28% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago49¢22bought yes
6d ago49¢472bought yes
6d ago48¢5bought yes
6d ago48¢1.67bought yes
11d ago42¢1.67bought no
16d ago42¢100bought no
16d ago46¢1.1bought yes
16d ago45¢0.57bought yes
17d ago45¢1.43bought yes
17d ago44¢0.72bought yes
18d ago42¢2.28bought yes
19d ago42¢500bought no
20d ago42¢1.64bought no
20d ago42¢0.03bought no
27d ago46¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.