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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Sean Combs

24h volume
0
38.7k lifetime
Open interest
8,101
+0 over 24h
Spread
8¢
5 × 9.11 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 84¢
Recent buying13% YES · 87% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 20, 9:24 AMSep 21, 4:20 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55072¢
  • ask3871¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask30058¢
  • ask5754¢
  • ask9053¢
  • ask10025¢
  • ask9.1124¢
spread8¢mid 20¢
  • bid516¢
  • bid1015¢
  • bid1311¢
  • bid10010¢
  • bid5503¢
  • bid13¢
  • bid9163¢
  • bid13¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Sean Combs has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SCOM
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 13% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago25¢99bought no
2d ago25¢2.58bought no
2d ago25¢5bought no
2d ago5¢20bought no
3d ago25¢47bought no
5d ago32¢0.14bought yes
5d ago32¢2bought yes
9d ago30¢235bought no
11d ago30¢1.39bought no
13d ago31¢6.25bought no
14d ago58¢0.01bought yes
14d ago36¢205bought yes
14d ago34¢5bought yes
14d ago35¢3bought yes
14d ago35¢21bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.