galdor.xyz
Admin
Unemployment spike·closes in 4mo

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

YES means Above 10%

24h volume
0
13.0k lifetime
Open interest
5,389
Spread
2¢
16 × 12 at the touch
24h range
–
20 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 99¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5049¢
  • ask2,46849¢
  • ask1,9989¢
  • ask1669¢
  • ask5,0004¢
  • ask134¢
  • ask3.064¢
  • ask124¢
spread2¢mid 3¢
  • bid161¢
  • bid8.681¢
  • bid421¢
  • bid691¢
  • bid101¢
  • bid271¢
  • bid650¢
  • bid350¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 10%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 5 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2027 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
10
ticker
KXU3MAX-27-10
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 20 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago3¢0.3bought yes
3d ago9¢15bought yes
3d ago3¢17bought yes
5d ago1¢1.91bought no
5d ago1¢5.5bought no
11d ago3¢1.2bought yes
11d ago3¢0.63bought yes
11d ago3¢5.58bought yes
19d ago1¢2.68bought no
19d ago1¢0.65bought no
19d ago1¢0.67bought no
25d ago1¢0.16bought no
25d ago1¢0.62bought no
25d ago1¢0.12bought no
25d ago1¢0.4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.