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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 17mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 2.5%?

YES means Above 2.5%

24h volume
171
4,447 lifetime
Open interest
2,149
+1,662 over 30d
Spread
2¢
14 × 17 at the touch
24h range
68¢ – 78¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
76%+10

A YES contract costs 76¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
24%

costs 26¢

YES bid / ask
74¢ / 76¢
NO bid / ask
24¢ / 26¢
24h low 68¢24h high 78¢
Recent buying65% YES · 35% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15388¢
  • ask19087¢
  • ask16286¢
  • ask8885¢
  • ask33579¢
  • ask2278¢
  • ask6377¢
  • ask1776¢
spread2¢mid 75¢
  • bid1474¢
  • bid0.4469¢
  • bid5268¢
  • bid2867¢
  • bid6666¢
  • bid2765¢
  • bid12664¢
  • bid12963¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2027 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The initially reported value for December 2027 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2027, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
2.5
ticker
KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T2.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 65% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago76¢8.33bought yes
2h ago76¢5.17bought yes
2h ago76¢7.2bought yes
2h ago76¢2.58bought yes
4h ago73¢0.17bought no
4h ago73¢5bought no
5h ago76¢5.17bought yes
14h ago78¢5.82bought yes
14h ago76¢21bought yes
14h ago77¢29bought yes
14h ago74¢5bought yes
14h ago78¢37bought yes
14h ago77¢4.16bought yes
14h ago73¢27bought yes
21h ago68¢0.8bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.