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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 17mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 3.5%?

YES means Above 3.5%

24h volume
0
213 lifetime
Open interest
141
+0 over 24h
Spread
42¢
5 × 190 at the touch
24h range
–
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 51¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 51¢
NO bid / ask
49¢ / 91¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 21, 12:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7,50068¢
  • ask8,04967¢
  • ask75063¢
  • ask5062¢
  • ask25057¢
  • ask755¢
  • ask653¢
  • ask19051¢
spread42¢mid 30¢
  • bid59¢
  • bid238¢
  • bid2.326¢
  • bid1023¢
  • bid1382¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2027 is above 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The initially reported value for December 2027 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2027, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
3.5
ticker
KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T3.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago15¢2.32bought no
13d ago50¢9.79bought yes
13d ago48¢5bought yes
13d ago47¢5bought yes
15d ago19¢3.47bought no
19d ago48¢3.47bought yes
19d ago44¢0.89bought yes
19d ago49¢34bought yes
19d ago46¢5bought yes
19d ago44¢2bought yes
21d ago40¢2.95bought no
23d ago38¢2.89bought no
23d ago39¢5.03bought no
26d ago43¢11bought yes
1mo ago45¢21bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.