WHO WILL PERFORM AT THE SPHERE·closes in 16mo

Will Jay-Z perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?

YES means Jay-Z

24h volume: 0; 1,553 lifetime
Open interest: 869; +0 over 30d
Spread: 41¢; 5 × 5 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

19%

A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

81%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask

9¢ / 50¢

NO bid / ask

50¢ / 91¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask20099¢
ask61096¢
ask5992¢
ask20584¢
ask27182¢
ask24181¢
ask10051¢
ask550¢

spread41¢mid 30¢

bid59¢
bid58¢
bid1402¢
bid2001¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jay-Z performs at the Las Vegas Sphere in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this contract, "performed" means the person appears live on stage or in the official broadcast/stream and performs (including singing, dancing, DJ-ing, or playing an instrument), either as a scheduled performer or as a guest appearance during another artist's performance. Guest appearances where the person performs live music qualify. Festival appearances that include a live set qualify. The following do not qualify: appearing only as an award presenter or host, being in the audience without performing, having music played without participation, appearing in video montages or tribute segments without performing, pre-show or post-show performances outside the official event timeframe, appearances without performing (speeches, award acceptances, interviews, promotional events), canceled or postponed shows where no performance occurs in the time period, rehearsals and sound checks, or virtual participation via livestream into the venue.

Settlement sources

Las Vegas Sphere

opened: Dec 19, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-JAY

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.