galdor.xyz
Admin
Democratic VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?

YES means Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

24h volume
1,241
290.8k lifetime
Open interest
125.5k
−782 over 24h
Spread
1¢
5,646 × 10 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 8¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%−0

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 94¢
24h low 6¢24h high 8¢
Recent buying9% YES · 91% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 5:23 AMSep 21, 2:21 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask358¢
  • ask507¢
  • ask6687¢
  • ask9597¢
  • ask217¢
  • ask167¢
  • ask167¢
  • ask107¢
spread1¢mid 6¢
  • bid5,6466¢
  • bid7,1036¢
  • bid1506¢
  • bid2536¢
  • bid276¢
  • bid16¢
  • bid315¢
  • bid5.475¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMD-28-AOC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 9% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago7¢0.11bought yes
3h ago7¢1.42bought yes
3h ago7¢19bought yes
3h ago7¢2.4bought yes
5h ago6¢17bought no
5h ago7¢490bought no
5h ago6¢14bought no
5h ago6¢100bought no
5h ago6¢44bought no
5h ago6¢200bought no
5h ago6¢89bought no
5h ago7¢82bought no
5h ago6¢9bought no
13h ago7¢44bought no
13h ago7¢5.76bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.