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Democratic VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?

YES means Gavin Newsom

24h volume
1,102
157.2k lifetime
Open interest
113.6k
Spread
1¢
1,918 × 3.84 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%+1

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 97¢
Recent buying52% YES · 48% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask646¢
  • ask1,1274¢
  • ask7664¢
  • ask9.534¢
  • ask1,5324¢
  • ask2064¢
  • ask5954¢
  • ask3.844¢
spread1¢mid 3¢
  • bid1,9183¢
  • bid253¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid182¢
  • bid611¢
  • bid10.0k1¢
  • bid1,6661¢
  • bid1,3631¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMD-28-GN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 52% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago4¢23bought yes
14h ago4¢3.21bought yes
24h ago3¢2bought yes
24h ago3¢593bought yes
24h ago4¢95bought yes
24h ago3¢0.71bought yes
24h ago4¢382bought yes
24h ago4¢3.34bought yes
2d ago3¢593bought no
2d ago4¢3.45bought yes
2d ago4¢101bought yes
3d ago3¢599bought no
3d ago3¢554bought no
3d ago3¢5bought no
3d ago3¢86bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.