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Democratic VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?

YES means Mark Kelly

24h volume
498
91.1k lifetime
Open interest
77.5k
+686 over 30d
Spread
1¢
316 × 21 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 6¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%−2

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
24h low 4¢24h high 6¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask736¢
  • ask756¢
  • ask576¢
  • ask3,4036¢
  • ask1796¢
  • ask305¢
  • ask2975¢
  • ask215¢
spread1¢mid 5¢
  • bid3164¢
  • bid0.834¢
  • bid9184¢
  • bid3954¢
  • bid254¢
  • bid504¢
  • bid473¢
  • bid6973¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Mark Kelly accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 21 · 1:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMD-28-MKEL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago5¢22bought no
4h ago5¢6.42bought no
4h ago5¢6.42bought no
4h ago4¢109bought no
4h ago5¢52bought no
4h ago4¢6.42bought no
4h ago5¢9.06bought no
4h ago4¢15bought no
4h ago4¢9.49bought no
4h ago5¢12bought no
4h ago4¢1.4bought no
4h ago4¢125bought no
4h ago4¢21bought no
4h ago4¢72bought no
4h ago4¢13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.