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World Cup·closes in 53mo

Will Italy win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?

YES means Italy

24h volume
0
11.5k lifetime
Open interest
10.5k
+8.58 over 7d
Spread
0¢
3,592 × 1,191 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15.5k28¢
  • ask1,0009¢
  • ask17.4k4¢
  • ask2,0004¢
  • ask1,6964¢
  • ask2503¢
  • ask5673¢
  • ask1,1913¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid3,5922¢
  • bid106.0k2¢
  • bid9712¢
  • bid4,6001¢
  • bid1,6661¢
  • bid1,8181¢
  • bid2,0001¢
  • bid2,2221¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Italy is the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 19 · 10:15 PM UTC
closes
Jan 15, 2031 · 3:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXWC-30-ITA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 87¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago3¢154bought yes
3d ago3¢118bought yes
3d ago3¢30bought yes
5d ago4¢0.04bought no
5d ago2¢294bought no
7d ago4¢51bought yes
18d ago4¢253bought yes
1mo ago2¢176bought yes
1mo ago2¢1,811bought yes
1mo ago2¢100bought yes
1mo ago2¢286bought yes
1mo ago2¢14bought yes
1mo ago2¢250bought yes
1mo ago2¢9.8bought yes
2mo ago2¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.