U.S. withdrawing from international organizations·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Inter-American Development Bank

24h volume
0
264 lifetime
Open interest
77
+0 over 7d
Spread
18 × 11 at the touch
24h range
7 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 86¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20086¢
  • ask50069¢
  • ask7260¢
  • ask1,20759¢
  • ask94258¢
  • ask5049¢
  • ask30020¢
  • ask1119¢
spreadmid 16¢
  • bid1814¢
  • bid20013¢
  • bid33
  • bid51
  • bid3
  • bid4,850
  • bid594
  • bid20.0k
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States completely withdraws from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
Feb 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWITHDRAW-29-IDB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 7 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago14¢11bought no
2mo ago14¢5bought no
2mo ago15¢5bought no
2mo ago19¢8bought yes
2mo ago19¢6bought yes
2mo ago20¢38bought yes
2mo ago20¢20bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.