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U.S. withdrawing from international organizations·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means World Bank Group

24h volume
0
713 lifetime
Open interest
342
+0 over 7d
Spread
6¢
5 × 300 at the touch
24h range
–
9 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 83¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20086¢
  • ask8669¢
  • ask97168¢
  • ask6666¢
  • ask1,12965¢
  • ask36760¢
  • ask18859¢
  • ask30023¢
spread6¢mid 20¢
  • bid517¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid110¢
  • bid95¢
  • bid534¢
  • bid2994¢
  • bid1,0004¢
  • bid33¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States completely withdraws from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWITHDRAW-29-WBANK
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 9 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago16¢9bought no
2mo ago18¢2bought no
2mo ago20¢15bought no
2mo ago20¢25bought no
2mo ago20¢10bought no
2mo ago21¢50bought yes
2mo ago21¢1bought yes
2mo ago24¢30bought yes
2mo ago20¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.