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U.S. withdrawing from international organizations·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means World Trade Organization

24h volume
0
5,227 lifetime
Open interest
2,168
+4.14 over 7d
Spread
5¢
10 × 36 at the touch
24h range
29¢ – 29¢
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 34¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 34¢
NO bid / ask
66¢ / 71¢
24h low 29¢24h high 29¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask29074¢
  • ask19172¢
  • ask1,20170¢
  • ask68368¢
  • ask4963¢
  • ask156¢
  • ask30035¢
  • ask3634¢
spread5¢mid 31¢
  • bid1029¢
  • bid26628¢
  • bid346¢
  • bid36¢
  • bid474¢
  • bid5294¢
  • bid1,0004¢
  • bid4,5003¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States completely withdraws from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWITHDRAW-29-WTO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.