Xi Jinping successor·closes in 223mo

Will Li Ganjie become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?

YES means Li Ganjie

24h volume: 0; 299 lifetime
Open interest: 152; +0 over 7d
Spread: 2¢; 17 × 10 at the touch
24h range: –; 3 recent trades

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask

0¢ / 2¢

NO bid / ask

98¢ / 100¢

Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask1,000100¢
ask2.899¢
ask55597¢
ask2,61790¢
ask20090¢
ask2095¢
ask1004¢
ask102¢

spread2¢mid 1¢

bid170¢
bid2000¢
bid1,0000¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Li Ganjie is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.

Settlement sources

opened: Sep 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2045 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LGAN

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 73¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 3 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
25d ago	0¢	4	bought no
29d ago	3¢	2	bought yes
1mo ago	3¢	2	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.