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Xi Jinping successor·closes in 223mo

Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?

YES means Li Qiang

24h volume
0
14.4k lifetime
Open interest
1,658
Spread
3¢
347 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 86¢
Recent buying66% YES · 34% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,14264¢
  • ask33251¢
  • ask5049¢
  • ask9248¢
  • ask1845¢
  • ask20019¢
  • ask518¢
  • ask117¢
spread3¢mid 16¢
  • bid34714¢
  • bid9713¢
  • bid20010¢
  • bid55¢
  • bid324¢
  • bid493¢
  • bid4003¢
  • bid1,2862¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Li Qiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LQIA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 73¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 66% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago14¢8bought yes
4d ago13¢1bought no
4d ago14¢1bought yes
4d ago13¢1bought no
5d ago14¢1bought yes
5d ago13¢1bought no
15d ago14¢5bought no
17d ago16¢100bought yes
17d ago16¢1bought yes
17d ago15¢100bought yes
17d ago15¢5bought yes
1mo ago10¢5bought no
1mo ago15¢1bought yes
1mo ago15¢4bought yes
1mo ago15¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.