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Party power·closes in 38mo

Will the Democratic party win the House, the Republican party win the Senate, and the Democratic party win the Presidency?

YES means D-House, R-Senate, D-President

24h volume
0
36.5k lifetime
Open interest
29.0k
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
250 × 187 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 91¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 6:39 AMSep 21, 1:56 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask14017¢
  • ask25016¢
  • ask7915¢
  • ask7314¢
  • ask24012¢
  • ask1311¢
  • ask5010¢
  • ask18710¢
spread0¢mid 10¢
  • bid2509¢
  • bid289¢
  • bid1.849¢
  • bid179¢
  • bid1,0009¢
  • bid277¢
  • bid2007¢
  • bid267¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party wins the House, the Republican party wins the Senate, and the Democratic party wins the Presidency in the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 3, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
POWER-28-DH-RS-DP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago9¢100bought no
3d ago10¢10bought yes
3d ago10¢5bought yes
3d ago10¢25bought yes
3d ago9¢4bought no
4d ago10¢1bought yes
4d ago10¢1bought yes
4d ago10¢46bought yes
6d ago9¢94bought no
6d ago9¢1bought no
8d ago10¢90bought yes
13d ago10¢5bought yes
13d ago10¢42bought yes
14d ago10¢94bought yes
14d ago9¢9.81bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.