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Party power·closes in 38mo

Will the Republican party win the House, the Republican party win the Senate, and the Republican party win the Presidency?

YES means Republican Sweep

24h volume
1.31
93.5k lifetime
Open interest
54.6k
Spread
1¢
445 × 2,332 at the touch
24h range
18¢ – 18¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 83¢
24h low 18¢24h high 18¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3727¢
  • ask25025¢
  • ask2024¢
  • ask8523¢
  • ask6821¢
  • ask1320¢
  • ask5,63719¢
  • ask2,33218¢
spread1¢mid 18¢
  • bid44517¢
  • bid46616¢
  • bid1,07115¢
  • bid75014¢
  • bid3213¢
  • bid50012¢
  • bid12511¢
  • bid2,50010¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican party wins the House, the Republican party wins the Senate, and the Republican party wins the Presidency in the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 3, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
POWER-28-RH-RS-RP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
30m ago18¢1.31bought yes
1d ago18¢53bought yes
2d ago17¢33bought no
2d ago18¢17bought yes
2d ago18¢25bought yes
3d ago18¢3bought yes
5d ago18¢50bought yes
6d ago18¢53bought yes
7d ago17¢22bought no
7d ago17¢175bought no
7d ago18¢5.25bought yes
8d ago18¢10bought yes
9d ago17¢1bought no
9d ago18¢11bought yes
10d ago18¢5.25bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.