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House winner·closes in 4mo

Will Democrats win the House in 2026?

YES means Democratic Party

24h volume
214.9k
12.34M lifetime
Open interest
8.23M
Spread
1¢
3.83 × 1,150 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
92%+1

A YES contract costs 92¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
8%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 92¢
NO bid / ask
9¢ / 9¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6592¢
  • ask2592¢
  • ask92092¢
  • ask100.3k92¢
  • ask25.0k92¢
  • ask25192¢
  • ask4192¢
  • ask1,15092¢
spread1¢mid 91¢
  • bid3.8391¢
  • bid2491¢
  • bid15.0k91¢
  • bid20.1k91¢
  • bid15.0k90¢
  • bid2,32590¢
  • bid7,20990¢
  • bid62.3k90¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLH-2026-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4m ago91¢25bought yes
4m ago92¢518bought yes
6m ago91¢1.17bought no
7m ago91¢2.17bought yes
13m ago91¢0.15bought no
34m ago91¢25bought no
34m ago92¢2bought yes
37m ago92¢6bought yes
37m ago91¢6.35bought yes
37m ago91¢15bought yes
39m ago91¢2.13bought yes
40m ago91¢3.2bought yes
43m ago91¢1.08bought yes
46m ago91¢6bought no
53m ago92¢6.92bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.