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House winner·closes in 4mo

Will Democrats win the House in 2026?

YES means Democratic Party

24h volume
220.1k
12.35M lifetime
Open interest
8.23M
+179.9k over 24h
Spread
0¢
11 × 71 at the touch
24h range
90¢ – 92¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
91%+1

A YES contract costs 91¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
9%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 91¢
NO bid / ask
9¢ / 9¢
24h low 90¢24h high 92¢
Recent buying10% YES · 90% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢90¢100¢volSep 20, 5:18 AMSep 21, 5:12 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6592¢
  • ask2592¢
  • ask98392¢
  • ask120.3k92¢
  • ask5,00092¢
  • ask25192¢
  • ask1,08092¢
  • ask7191¢
spread0¢mid 91¢
  • bid1191¢
  • bid1791¢
  • bid14.8k91¢
  • bid20.0k91¢
  • bid15.0k90¢
  • bid2,32590¢
  • bid7,20990¢
  • bid61.2k90¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLH-2026-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 10% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5m ago91¢0.51bought no
5m ago91¢8.52bought no
23m ago91¢2.17bought no
26m ago91¢13bought yes
35m ago91¢5.34bought yes
36m ago91¢2.32bought no
37m ago91¢0.65bought no
37m ago91¢0.65bought yes
49m ago91¢4.15bought yes
49m ago92¢8.72bought yes
51m ago91¢7.67bought yes
51m ago91¢0.46bought yes
51m ago92¢4.74bought yes
52m ago91¢1.22bought yes
52m ago91¢9.65bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.