galdor.xyz
Admin
2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Andy Beshear

24h volume
0
7,333 lifetime
Open interest
4,033
Spread
5¢
12 × 20 at the touch
24h range
–
48 recent trades
Chance of YES
90%

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
10%

costs 10¢

YES bid / ask
90¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
5¢ / 10¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask197¢
  • ask2797¢
  • ask196¢
  • ask2296¢
  • ask1,00096¢
  • ask2796¢
  • ask11895¢
  • ask2095¢
spread5¢mid 92¢
  • bid1290¢
  • bid2588¢
  • bid2587¢
  • bid6.0586¢
  • bid2585¢
  • bid1683¢
  • bid7282¢
  • bid2781¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Andy Beshear announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-ABES
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 48 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago90¢2bought no
3d ago90¢2bought yes
3d ago95¢7.38bought yes
6d ago89¢1.11bought yes
8d ago87¢10bought no
8d ago86¢11bought no
13d ago87¢16bought yes
16d ago88¢282bought yes
20d ago87¢40bought yes
20d ago86¢9.47bought yes
20d ago86¢5.41bought yes
20d ago86¢0.08bought yes
20d ago86¢4.39bought yes
20d ago87¢188bought yes
20d ago84¢4.46bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.