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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

24h volume
22
137.4k lifetime
Open interest
60.5k
−20 over 24h
Spread
1¢
18 × 0.1 at the touch
24h range
65¢ – 65¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
65%−2

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
35%

costs 36¢

YES bid / ask
64¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 36¢
24h low 65¢24h high 65¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢65¢70¢75¢volSep 20, 6:16 AMSep 21, 5:01 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,02972¢
  • ask23171¢
  • ask7970¢
  • ask37669¢
  • ask4468¢
  • ask2567¢
  • ask2.1666¢
  • ask0.165¢
spread1¢mid 65¢
  • bid1864¢
  • bid1,00063¢
  • bid61162¢
  • bid1,00061¢
  • bid47860¢
  • bid22552¢
  • bid20051¢
  • bid545¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago65¢2bought no
14h ago65¢2.18bought no
14h ago65¢3bought no
14h ago65¢15bought no
1d ago67¢69bought no
1d ago67¢14bought no
1d ago67¢2.4bought no
1d ago69¢0.05bought yes
1d ago69¢0.05bought yes
1d ago69¢2,476bought yes
1d ago68¢9.56bought yes
1d ago68¢255bought yes
1d ago66¢5bought yes
1d ago67¢7.44bought yes
1d ago67¢7.44bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.