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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Chris Van Hollen

24h volume
0
4,658 lifetime
Open interest
4,029
−57 over 7d
Spread
4¢
8.03 × 7.66 at the touch
24h range
–
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
41%

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
59%

costs 63¢

YES bid / ask
37¢ / 41¢
NO bid / ask
59¢ / 63¢
Recent buying90% YES · 10% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volSep 15, 2:00 AMSep 16, 10:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,02289¢
  • ask1,93087¢
  • ask55286¢
  • ask37673¢
  • ask1055¢
  • ask1050¢
  • ask1,00542¢
  • ask7.6641¢
spread4¢mid 39¢
  • bid8.0337¢
  • bid14536¢
  • bid1434¢
  • bid1,00033¢
  • bid6726¢
  • bid9525¢
  • bid14422¢
  • bid4221¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Chris Van Hollen announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 14, 2025 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-CHOL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago41¢2.34bought yes
5d ago37¢8.3bought no
5d ago36¢36bought no
5d ago36¢11bought no
5d ago37¢1.7bought no
5d ago37¢50bought no
6d ago41¢2.34bought yes
11d ago42¢24bought yes
15d ago42¢6.86bought yes
18d ago42¢18bought yes
18d ago41¢5bought yes
25d ago33¢43bought no
25d ago34¢5bought no
28d ago41¢12bought yes
28d ago40¢1.19bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.