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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Chris Murphy

24h volume
0
2,420 lifetime
Open interest
1,703
+48 over 30d
Spread
3¢
1,000 × 24 at the touch
24h range
–
30 recent trades
Chance of YES
60%

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
40%

costs 38¢

YES bid / ask
62¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 38¢
Recent buying10% YES · 90% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23288¢
  • ask24887¢
  • ask10885¢
  • ask3083¢
  • ask12282¢
  • ask1,00071¢
  • ask1970¢
  • ask2465¢
spread3¢mid 64¢
  • bid1,00062¢
  • bid457¢
  • bid317¢
  • bid457¢
  • bid136¢
  • bid5,0006¢
  • bid425¢
  • bid1,0004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Chris Murphy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 24, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-CMUR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 30 trades, 10% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
16d ago60¢38bought no
16d ago62¢6bought no
19d ago62¢38bought no
26d ago65¢4.5bought yes
1mo ago65¢1bought yes
1mo ago67¢2bought yes
1mo ago63¢4.29bought no
1mo ago68¢1bought no
1mo ago69¢1bought yes
2mo ago63¢9.52bought no
2mo ago64¢20bought no
2mo ago64¢22bought no
2mo ago65¢16bought no
2mo ago64¢84bought no
2mo ago65¢8.83bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.