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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Jon Stewart

24h volume
0
14.4k lifetime
Open interest
8,398
+22 over 90d
Spread
5¢
5 × 47 at the touch
24h range
–
45 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 87¢
Recent buying26% YES · 74% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volJun 25Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11551¢
  • ask1950¢
  • ask6649¢
  • ask5.2522¢
  • ask10821¢
  • ask1,62720¢
  • ask6619¢
  • ask4718¢
spread5¢mid 16¢
  • bid513¢
  • bid26012¢
  • bid1,12411¢
  • bid618¢
  • bid18¢
  • bid534¢
  • bid734¢
  • bid2334¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jon Stewart announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 45 trades, 26% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago17¢13bought yes
10d ago17¢15bought yes
17d ago12¢1.12bought no
25d ago15¢2.32bought no
1mo ago12¢8.7bought no
1mo ago12¢14bought no
1mo ago12¢0.48bought no
1mo ago12¢7.15bought no
1mo ago14¢13bought no
1mo ago12¢14bought no
1mo ago14¢9.21bought no
1mo ago15¢4bought no
1mo ago15¢2.64bought no
1mo ago17¢29bought yes
1mo ago15¢116bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.