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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means James Talarico

24h volume
10
826 lifetime
Open interest
754
+186 over 30d
Spread
5¢
5 × 20 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 15¢
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%+7

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 90¢
24h low 15¢24h high 15¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6.2945¢
  • ask20043¢
  • ask1542¢
  • ask40030¢
  • ask10028¢
  • ask32427¢
  • ask1,00016¢
  • ask2015¢
spread5¢mid 13¢
  • bid510¢
  • bid1.759¢
  • bid208¢
  • bid1,0007¢
  • bid395¢
  • bid2764¢
  • bid153¢
  • bid1,3172¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If James Talarico announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 8 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-JTAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17h ago15¢10bought yes
1d ago8¢35bought no
2d ago8¢10bought no
5d ago14¢51bought yes
6d ago15¢14bought yes
6d ago16¢75bought yes
6d ago10¢14bought no
8d ago8¢12bought no
11d ago15¢0.62bought yes
17d ago15¢6.29bought yes
17d ago10¢1.1bought no
1mo ago11¢1bought no
1mo ago13¢36bought yes
1mo ago15¢10bought yes
1mo ago15¢31bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.