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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Mark Kelly

24h volume
5.75
25.2k lifetime
Open interest
13.3k
+2,217 over 30d
Spread
5¢
5 × 35 at the touch
24h range
71¢ – 71¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
71%+7

A YES contract costs 71¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
29%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 71¢
NO bid / ask
29¢ / 34¢
24h low 71¢24h high 71¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3485¢
  • ask40084¢
  • ask5682¢
  • ask33481¢
  • ask675¢
  • ask10874¢
  • ask1,00072¢
  • ask3571¢
spread5¢mid 69¢
  • bid566¢
  • bid40065¢
  • bid2,60563¢
  • bid7849¢
  • bid84248¢
  • bid5023¢
  • bid2,39522¢
  • bid55017¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Mark Kelly announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago71¢5.75bought yes
4d ago64¢1bought no
4d ago64¢3bought no
5d ago69¢4.99bought yes
5d ago69¢16bought yes
6d ago70¢1.39bought yes
7d ago68¢7.19bought yes
8d ago65¢5bought no
8d ago65¢27bought no
10d ago70¢130bought yes
10d ago70¢548bought yes
10d ago69¢5.97bought yes
10d ago69¢16bought yes
14d ago65¢1,000bought yes
16d ago65¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.