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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Michelle Obama

24h volume
0
10.3k lifetime
Open interest
8,508
Spread
3¢
15 × 50 at the touch
24h range
–
31 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 94¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Michelle Obama announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-MOBA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 31 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago6¢2.12bought no
6d ago6¢1.89bought no
6d ago6¢0.11bought no
11d ago10¢21bought yes
11d ago10¢27bought yes
1mo ago10¢3.74bought yes
1mo ago11¢200bought yes
1mo ago10¢17bought yes
1mo ago10¢116bought yes
1mo ago11¢648bought yes
1mo ago10¢3.97bought yes
1mo ago10¢18bought yes
1mo ago9¢12bought yes
1mo ago9¢1.05bought yes
2mo ago6¢0.79bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.