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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Rahm Emanuel

24h volume
11
29.2k lifetime
Open interest
17.2k
−16 over 30d
Spread
4¢
54 × 87 at the touch
24h range
83¢ – 83¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
83%+5

A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
17%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 84¢
NO bid / ask
16¢ / 20¢
24h low 83¢24h high 83¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11291¢
  • ask391¢
  • ask590¢
  • ask6789¢
  • ask1,00088¢
  • ask18987¢
  • ask18085¢
  • ask8784¢
spread4¢mid 82¢
  • bid5480¢
  • bid1,00079¢
  • bid15066¢
  • bid30965¢
  • bid16864¢
  • bid86460¢
  • bid558¢
  • bid24555¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Rahm Emanuel announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-REMA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago83¢2.38bought yes
6h ago83¢9.02bought yes
3d ago79¢18bought no
3d ago78¢1,000bought no
4d ago84¢23bought yes
6d ago80¢12bought no
6d ago79¢136bought no
6d ago80¢2bought no
6d ago84¢0.11bought yes
16d ago85¢98bought yes
16d ago84¢2bought yes
18d ago83¢15bought yes
18d ago84¢20bought yes
18d ago84¢50bought yes
20d ago80¢37bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.