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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Tim Walz

24h volume
0
40.1k lifetime
Open interest
3,292
+0 over 7d
Spread
5¢
16 × 20 at the touch
24h range
–
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
19%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
81%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 96¢
Recent buying4% YES · 96% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volSep 18, 3:00 PMSep 21, 6:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8424¢
  • ask50020¢
  • ask31219¢
  • ask3418¢
  • ask1,00013¢
  • ask3212¢
  • ask1111¢
  • ask2010¢
spread5¢mid 7¢
  • bid164¢
  • bid54¢
  • bid204¢
  • bid1,0184¢
  • bid14¢
  • bid222¢
  • bid502¢
  • bid152¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tim Walz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-TWAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 4% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago4¢13bought yes
3d ago19¢7.15bought yes
12d ago4¢1.07bought yes
16d ago5¢1,000bought no
16d ago5¢1bought no
16d ago5¢0.79bought no
16d ago5¢9.88bought no
16d ago5¢1bought no
16d ago5¢0.66bought no
16d ago5¢8.97bought no
16d ago4¢861bought no
16d ago4¢13bought no
1mo ago10¢1.09bought yes
1mo ago10¢3.42bought yes
1mo ago10¢6.94bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.