Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?
YES means Before Oct 1, 2026
- 24h volume
- 156
- 30.5k lifetime
- Open interest
- 19.0k
- +120 over 24h
- Spread
- 1¢
- 114 × 314 at the touch
- 24h range
- 2¢ – 3¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 98¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask2,08255¢
- ask1,40021¢
- ask0.2415¢
- ask40010¢
- ask2007¢
- ask4995¢
- ask114¢
- ask3143¢
- bid1142¢
- bid8,8191¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.
- opened
- Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | 3¢ | 40 | bought yes |
| 6h ago | 3¢ | 80 | bought yes |
| 16h ago | 2¢ | 25 | bought no |
| 16h ago | 2¢ | 8.32 | bought no |
| 23h ago | 2¢ | 3.33 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 3¢ | 39 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 3¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 4¢ | 97 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 4¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 3¢ | 2 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 4¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 4¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 4¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 3¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 3¢ | 22 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.