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Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 3mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
8.33
22.9k lifetime
Open interest
10.3k
+2,125 over 7d
Spread
1¢
240 × 4 at the touch
24h range
12¢ – 13¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%−1

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 88¢
24h low 12¢24h high 13¢
Recent buying11% YES · 89% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4562¢
  • ask246¢
  • ask30026¢
  • ask20025¢
  • ask20020¢
  • ask8415¢
  • ask214¢
  • ask413¢
spread1¢mid 13¢
  • bid24012¢
  • bid33310¢
  • bid9999¢
  • bid38¢
  • bid4337¢
  • bid8846¢
  • bid5,4015¢
  • bid5004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q4
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 11% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago13¢5bought yes
21h ago12¢3.33bought no
2d ago14¢2bought no
2d ago14¢9bought no
3d ago18¢53bought yes
3d ago16¢5bought yes
3d ago17¢51bought yes
3d ago15¢111bought no
3d ago7¢22bought no
3d ago7¢163bought no
3d ago10¢1,000bought no
3d ago13¢200bought no
3d ago12¢200bought no
3d ago14¢28bought no
3d ago8¢47bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.