galdor.xyz
Admin
Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 6mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2027?

YES means Before Apr 1, 2027

24h volume
0
14.6k lifetime
Open interest
8,659
+2,960 over 7d
Spread
5¢
15 × 28 at the touch
24h range
16¢ – 41¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 74¢

YES bid / ask
26¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 74¢
24h low 16¢24h high 41¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55070¢
  • ask11469¢
  • ask3767¢
  • ask2966¢
  • ask543¢
  • ask25140¢
  • ask22032¢
  • ask2831¢
spread5¢mid 29¢
  • bid1526¢
  • bid7625¢
  • bid50024¢
  • bid1917¢
  • bid1,00016¢
  • bid1,97914¢
  • bid2709¢
  • bid5508¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago30¢2bought yes
2d ago28¢3.96bought yes
2d ago28¢2.19bought yes
4d ago29¢15bought no
4d ago32¢7bought yes
5d ago35¢28bought no
5d ago34¢200bought no
5d ago34¢6bought no
5d ago36¢3bought no
5d ago33¢1,000bought no
5d ago24¢400bought no
5d ago16¢188bought no
5d ago18¢550bought no
5d ago36¢222bought no
5d ago34¢37bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.