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Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 13mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2027

24h volume
331
18.1k lifetime
Open interest
9,655
−78 over 24h
Spread
7¢
200 × 30 at the touch
24h range
49¢ – 53¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
49%−4

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
51%

costs 55¢

YES bid / ask
45¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 55¢
24h low 49¢24h high 53¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢volSep 20, 3:55 PMSep 21, 3:01 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7080¢
  • ask978¢
  • ask10077¢
  • ask4.7375¢
  • ask1555¢
  • ask154¢
  • ask20053¢
  • ask3052¢
spread7¢mid 49¢
  • bid20045¢
  • bid40042¢
  • bid40041¢
  • bid1633¢
  • bid1,00032¢
  • bid1,31720¢
  • bid55016¢
  • bid2,8929¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13m ago49¢200bought no
13m ago49¢3bought no
8h ago52¢3bought no
9h ago51¢111bought no
9h ago53¢11bought no
9h ago53¢3bought no
1d ago53¢21bought no
4d ago57¢2bought yes
4d ago55¢3.39bought yes
4d ago58¢9.8bought yes
4d ago55¢0.92bought yes
4d ago55¢0.08bought yes
4d ago56¢1.63bought yes
4d ago54¢200bought no
5d ago64¢0.73bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.