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Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 19mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?

YES means Before Apr 1, 2028

24h volume
0
5,973 lifetime
Open interest
4,877
+731 over 30d
Spread
8¢
200 × 3,053 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
74%

A YES contract costs 79¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
26%

costs 29¢

YES bid / ask
71¢ / 79¢
NO bid / ask
21¢ / 29¢
Recent buying90% YES · 10% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask72.7k99¢
  • ask2,92497¢
  • ask4696¢
  • ask30093¢
  • ask55092¢
  • ask1391¢
  • ask3,05379¢
spread8¢mid 75¢
  • bid20071¢
  • bid1061¢
  • bid20060¢
  • bid10059¢
  • bid30058¢
  • bid1,00050¢
  • bid5327¢
  • bid55026¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago74¢20bought no
4d ago74¢10bought no
4d ago75¢5bought no
4d ago75¢0.28bought no
4d ago76¢5bought no
4d ago92¢20bought yes
4d ago92¢2bought yes
6d ago75¢5bought no
6d ago75¢1bought no
11d ago74¢1.72bought no
11d ago75¢2bought no
11d ago81¢5.74bought yes
13d ago67¢73bought yes
13d ago93¢9.1bought yes
13d ago92¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.