Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 52mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2031

24h volume
1
8,135 lifetime
Open interest
3,509
+531 over 7d
Spread
258 × 484 at the touch
24h range
81¢ – 81¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
81%1

A YES contract costs 81¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
19%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 81¢
NO bid / ask
19¢ / 20¢
24h low 81¢24h high 81¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask60099¢
  • ask2,05298¢
  • ask5,00696¢
  • ask5995¢
  • ask2894¢
  • ask20088¢
  • ask48481¢
spreadmid 81¢
  • bid25880¢
  • bid379¢
  • bid1.6945¢
  • bid13544¢
  • bid34943¢
  • bid1237¢
  • bid1031¢
  • bid1111¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago81¢1bought yes
2d ago82¢6.02bought yes
2d ago81¢1bought yes
2d ago81¢6.09bought yes
3d ago80¢36bought yes
3d ago80¢0.4bought yes
3d ago80¢18bought yes
3d ago81¢23bought no
3d ago81¢200bought no
3d ago81¢0.6bought no
3d ago85¢19bought no
3d ago85¢0.6bought no
3d ago85¢166bought no
3d ago85¢2bought no
3d ago81¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.