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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will George MacKay be the next James Bond?

YES means George MacKay

24h volume
1,611
7,459 lifetime
Open interest
7,030
+3,364 over 7d
Spread
10¢
250 × 566 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 12¢
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%−1

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 98¢
24h low 2¢24h high 12¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12550¢
  • ask1,60936¢
  • ask30033¢
  • ask5131¢
  • ask2,00016¢
  • ask20015¢
  • ask1614¢
  • ask56612¢
spread10¢mid 7¢
  • bid2502¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If George MacKay is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 30 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOND-30-GEO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago2¢1.01bought no
4h ago11¢15bought yes
4h ago12¢1,434bought yes
4h ago8¢100bought yes
4h ago11¢60bought yes
13h ago2¢1bought no
3d ago12¢1bought no
3d ago3¢4.22bought no
3d ago20¢55bought no
3d ago9¢1,000bought yes
3d ago11¢500bought yes
3d ago12¢15bought yes
3d ago29¢11bought yes
3d ago10¢100bought yes
7d ago4¢98bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.