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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Nicholas Hoult be the next James Bond?

YES means Nicholas Hoult

24h volume
5.09
24.1k lifetime
Open interest
13.5k
Spread
2¢
3,198 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%−3

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 98¢
Recent buying80% YES · 20% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Nicholas Hoult is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

Settlement sources
opened
May 6 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOND-30-NIC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19h ago2¢5.09bought no
2d ago5¢188bought yes
4d ago5¢150bought yes
4d ago5¢34bought yes
4d ago4¢18bought yes
4d ago3¢50bought yes
4d ago3¢25bought yes
6d ago4¢23bought yes
7d ago6¢15bought yes
7d ago6¢17bought yes
7d ago5¢66bought yes
7d ago5¢19bought yes
7d ago4¢25bought yes
12d ago4¢23bought yes
12d ago1¢25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.