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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Paul Mescal be the next James Bond?

YES means Paul Mescal

24h volume
0
10.3k lifetime
Open interest
6,894
+41 over 7d
Spread
1¢
29 × 1,050 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55060¢
  • ask21053¢
  • ask1,70851¢
  • ask8327¢
  • ask1,0209¢
  • ask1,0504¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid293¢
  • bid5511¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Paul Mescal is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 26 · 5:15 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOND-30-PAU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago3¢25bought yes
7d ago3¢16bought yes
11d ago9¢25bought yes
11d ago10¢525bought yes
11d ago3¢213bought no
11d ago3¢30bought no
11d ago4¢7.11bought no
11d ago4¢57bought no
11d ago4¢243bought no
12d ago6¢25bought yes
13d ago4¢52bought no
13d ago4¢52bought no
13d ago4¢1.03bought no
13d ago5¢25bought yes
13d ago6¢531bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.